Obama on Africa: Is He Sending Mixed Signals?

In today's British Independent, Eric Kabendera suggests as much:

The initial signs from the Obama presidency were far from encouraging as far as promoting good governance was concerned. The first of the continent's leaders to be granted an Oval Office meeting with the new black occupant of the White House, was my own president: Jakaya Kikwete, of Tanzania.

He had just finished his stint as the rotating head of the African Union, so it might have been a matter of diplomatic protocol, but it was a disappointing choice nonetheless. While at the AU helm, President Kikwete was far from impressive. He stuck to the Africa old norm of "respecting your elders even when they are convicted thieves". So even when ordinary Zimbaweans were suffering at the repressive hands of Robert Mugabe, Mr Kikwete failed to denounce the rigged election and call him to account.

I am not sure Mr Obama grasped the signals he was sending by choosing the Tanzanian leader as his first African guest. This was a man who rabble-roused the AU into refusing to cooperate with the International Criminal Court regarding the indictment of the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for his role in the genocide in Darfur. The AU's refusal was a blessing to corrupt criminal leaders around the continent.

You can read the rest of the article here

Hail To The Chief

This week's African Voices on CNN features this intriguing little interview with President Kikwete.

 

Wait! But I am way cooler than him!

At least that is what Kenyans are thinking after President Kikwete became the first African leader to meet with the new kid on the block, President Obama. Or as The Daily Nation put it, 'Tanzania elbows Kenya to become darling of US. It continues:

Tanzania President Jakaya Kikwete this week claimed the honour of being the first African head of state to visit President Obama’s White House, in a move that will further highlight Kenya’s diminished status on the international scene.

The visit came on the back of a public snub by President Obama, who has opted to make Ghana the destination of his first visit to Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Sunday Standard got all hot and bothered, whining, like an insecure child, that Mr. Obama and Mr. Kikwete were gossiping about Kenya:

[US Ambassador to Kenya] Ranneberger spoke against the backdrop of a closed-door meeting between Obama and Tanzania President Jakaya Kikwete. It is believed Kenya’s troubled coalition and the gradual loss of grip by the weak-kneed Somali government featured at the meeting.

Our Kenyan brethrens can be so self-involved. Not everything is about you, man. Now I know this must hurt. You've always thought of yourselves as a more civilised peoples than us folks down south: better educated, more sophisticated, possessors of a more cultured sensibility. So the prospect of seeing Obama, someone whom you've embraced as one of your own, making nice with the Tanzanian President must sting a little. But this doesn't have to mean that you've lost your mojo. It's just that we have that 'peace' thing. Nowadays, that will get you a lot of play. Ask Obama, he'll tell you. No need to cry, though. We'll show you how its done, okay. Wipe them tears, now. Its all gonna be fine. 

CCM in trouble?

 President Kikwete speaking to voters at a CCM rally 

A few days ago, Steadman Group, the research and media monitoring firm which does a lot of work in sub-saharan Africa, released a poll on Tanzania that made for some interesting reading. From the Daily News:

President Jakaya Kikwete remains outstanding in leaders' popularity rating by 62 percent...The research findings show that the National Chairman of the Civic United Front (CUF), Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba and the National Chairman of Chadema, Mr. Freeman Mbowe, are the president's closest contenders, tying at 14 percent in popularity rating.

After a difficult year politically, State House will justifiably feel emboldened by this news. And by any standard these numbers are impressive. If Mr. Kikwete's approval rating remain this high going into the general election in 2010, it should translate into another huge landslide for him and his party. 

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that his current popularity is a significant drop from when he was first elected in 2005. Four years ago he won 80% of the popular vote to become Tanzania's fourth President. So looking at the poll from this perspective, it does suggest a significant loss of trust in Mr. Kikwete's ability to govern. This is why only 41% of voters approve of the government's overall performance in the last twelve months. While it hasn't yet gnawed on the personal popularity of the President, it definitely will if voters don't notice any improvements in the coming year.

The poll also implies that if the elections were held today, the opposition parties would garner over 30% of the vote.  If something close to this were to ever happen here it would completely transform politics in this country. It would probably mean a more effective opposition in parliament and hopefully give a much needed jolt to Tanzania's democracy. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. A year is a long time in politics and with the opposition as it is currently constituted, such a change is still unlikely. However, for the first time since the multiparty system was introduced, a significant bloc of voters are signaling that they are prepared to listen to an alternative. Whether they will in the end actually vote for one is difficult to predict. But it is still a significant development. How the political parties deal with this new reality in the next few months will be interesting to watch. (Photo courtesy of jakayakikwete.com)

UPDATE: The same poll indicates that folks from the isles are heading for yet another nail biter. Here is the intriguing little nugget:

Tanzanians are likely to vote for either Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad (23 per cent) or Dr Mohammed Gharib Bilal (21 per cent) respectively as the next Zanzibar president.